ECB Cuts Deposit Rate to 2%, Signals End of Easing Cycle Is Near

The European Central Bank lopped another quarter-point off its deposit rate on Thursday, taking it to 2 per cent—exactly half the level of a year ago. It’s the eighth cut since last summer, and President Christine Lagarde sounded almost ready to hang up the scissors, saying policymakers are “getting to the end of a monetary-policy cycle” that began with Covid, war-driven energy shocks and a surge in prices few had seen coming. The main lending rate, which drives tracker mortgages, slid to 2.15 per cent, instantly trimming repayments for more than 120,000 Irish borrowers.

Economists reckon one more move could arrive in September, nudging the deposit rate to 1.75 per cent—that sweet spot the ECB calls “neutral,” neither juicing nor choking the economy. Much depends on how EU-U.S. trade talks shake out; a fresh tariff skirmish would sap growth and depress prices, while a truce could lift both. Staff projections now see euro-zone inflation averaging 2 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent in 2026, with GDP crawling forward at just over 1 per cent. The message: victory over inflation is close, but not in the bag.

For households, the turn is already tangible. Add up this year’s cuts and a typical tracker holder with a 1.1-point margin saves about €52 a month per €100,000 owed over 20 years. Yet Lagarde stuck to her data-first mantra, refusing to pre-commit on rates and joking that critics won’t see “the back of me” before her term ends in 2027. Inflation may have plunged from its 10.6 per cent peak, but the governing council will keep meeting—battle by battle—until that 2 per cent target stays nailed down.