‘One Battle After Another’ Faces $100M Loss at Box Office
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Key Points
- Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is tracking to lose ~$100M theatrically despite $140M global to date
- A24’s The Smashing Machine plunged ~70% in week two; Paramount/Miramax’s Roofman opened to ~$8M
- Analysts cite weak “event-izing,” shorter theatrical windows, and audience wait-for-streaming habits
Prestige films aimed at adult audiences hit a rough patch at the box office. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has earned roughly $140 million worldwide but, given a production and marketing spend north of $200 million and typical revenue splits, is projected to fall about $100 million short in theaters. Warner Bros. disputes those loss estimates, pointing to a strong overall 2025 slate, but the title’s economics underscore how costly awards contenders can be if they don’t break wide.
Elsewhere, A24’s Dwayne Johnson-led The Smashing Machine tumbled around 70% in its second weekend, while Channing Tatum’s Roofman debuted near $8 million. Smaller adult-leaning releases also struggled to spark turnout. Analysts argue these films weren’t “event-ized” enough to create urgency, and note that shortened theatrical windows have trained viewers to wait for streaming.
The wobble arrives as the domestic box office remains about 20% shy of 2019 levels. Studios and exhibitors say a healthy market needs a mix of four-quadrant spectacles and upscale originals—but mid-to-high budget adult dramas face the steepest risk when marketing misses or audiences prioritize franchises.
