STUDY #2 — Scarcity, Waitlists & Resale Premiums in Luxury (2019–2025)

Quantifying the scarcity flywheel across Hermès, Louis Vuitton, and Cartier

By Arman Tale, Editor-in-Chief at Brand Vision Insights

Date: September 4, 2025

Absract

When supply is structurally constrained through waitlists, limited production, and controlled distribution, icon SKUs retain more value, sell faster on resale, and hold up better during down cycles than comparable non‑icons.

Executive Summary

• Scarcity elevates value. In 2024, the Louis Vuitton Neverfull reached about 158% value retention after moving to a waitlist in 2023, while the Hermès Sellier Birkin reached about 250%. Both sit well above brand averages used as non‑icon comparators. [Confidence: High]

• Operational signals matter. The Neverfull waitlist coincided with a retention step‑up of roughly 22 points year over year. Hermès opened its 23rd leather workshop in September 2024; SKU‑level liquidity impacts are not published, but Birkin retention remained exceptionally high. [Confidence: High for LV; Low for Hermès liquidity]

• Icons are more resilient in slowdowns. Despite a 2024–2025 luxury slowdown mapped by Bain–Altagamma, icon SKUs outperformed brand averages and kept resale premiums positive or near zero. [Confidence: Medium]

Hero stat: Neverfull value retention rose from about 136% in 2023 to about 158% in 2024 with the waitlist in place. [Confidence: High]

Research Questions

1) Scarcity → Value: Do icon products with persistent scarcity signals show higher Value Retention % and Resale Premium % than non-icons?

2) Operational Scarcity Signals: After Hermès opens new leather workshops or brands tighten allocations, do resale days-to-sell and premiums shift in the following 3–6 months?

3) Cycle Sensitivity: During industry slowdowns, do scarcity-rich icons suffer smaller resale drawdowns than non-icons?

4) Brand Comparison: Which brand (Hermès, LV, Cartier) exhibits the steepest scarcity→resale elasticity, controlling for MSRP, condition, and year?

5) Entry SKUs as Buffers: Do “entry” icons (e.g., LV Neverfull; Cartier Love) anchor liquidity and retention when macro demand softens?

Introduction and Background

Scarcity is a central feature of luxury pricing power. Hermès ties brand equity to durable icons and deliberately limited leather capacity. Louis Vuitton restricts distribution to owned channels and has selectively deployed waitlists for staples. Cartier positions jewelry icons as enduring status markers. These choices help explain observed resale outcomes. The macro cycle provides the second axis: after the 2020 shock, demand surged in 2021–2022, then slowed in 2024–2025. That sequence frames how scarcity interacts with demand at different points in the cycle.

Data and Methodology

Disclaimer: This report aggregates third‑party resale data and public company disclosures. Item‑level days‑to‑sell are not universally published; where unavailable, a documented proxy is used and clearly labeled. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Timeframe: 2019–2025 for context, with observed SKU‑level retention concentrated in 2022–2024, where public reports are most complete.

Sources: Rebag CLAIR (2023–2024) for brand and style retention; The RealReal 2024 Resale Report for category framing; Hermès investor materials for workshop openings; Bain–Altagamma for cycle phases.

Variables: Value Retention % = resale ÷ current MSRP; Resale Premium % = Value Retention % − 100; Liquidity proxied as a relative index (0–3) based on persistent top‑seller placement and platform‑level benchmarks when exact days‑to‑sell are not disclosed.

Scarcity proxy: ordinal index combining verified waitlists or allocation policies with operational capacity signals at the brand‑SKU‑year level.

Cycle controls: years bucketed as Expansion, Neutral, or Slowdown per Bain–Altagamma.

Modeling: Spearman correlations of scarcity proxy with retention and premium; OLS with brand dummies and year control with cluster‑robust errors; interaction checks with cycle phases; event windows for allocation and capacity announcements.

Sensitivity: median‑based checks and removal of single‑year spikes; conclusions hold in sign with wider intervals.

Dataset and Coverage

Icons: Hermès Birkin (Sellier), Louis Vuitton Neverfull (Monogram), Cartier Love Bracelet. Matched non‑icons are represented by brand‑level averages from the same period as conservative comparators. Coverage from 2019 to 2025 is maintained for transparency, with observed values clustering in 2022–2024.

A CSV with SKU, year, retention, premium, and liquidity index accompanies this study.

Results

Chart 1. Value‑retention leaderboard (icons vs non‑icons)

Icons versus matched non‑icons; the latest available point for each SKU.

Chart 2. Scarcity proxy vs resale premium

Brand‑level scatter using the latest icon reading for each brand.

Chart 3. Cycle stress test — icon retention by phase

Box plots of icon value retention grouped by Expansion, Neutral, and Slowdown phases.

Chart 4. Liquidity vs premium (quadrant map)

Relative Liquidity Index (0–3) versus resale premium, latest icon readings.

Table A. Dataset coverage (summary)

- Cartier — Brand average (non-icon mix): years 2023 (n=1)

- Cartier — Love Bracelet: years 2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 (n=7)

- Hermès — Birkin (Sellier): years 2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 (n=7)

- Hermès — Brand average (non-icon mix): years 2024 (n=1)

- Louis Vuitton — Brand average (non-icon mix): years 2024 (n=1)

- Louis Vuitton — Neverfull (Monogram): years 2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024,2025 (n=7)

Discussion

Scarcity to value and speed. The clearest elasticity is Neverfull’s post‑waitlist rise from ~136% to ~158% retention. Allocation policies made scarcity observable while secondhand demand stayed robust, lifting both retention and premium.

Structural scarcity at Hermès. Workshop additions expand capacity over time, yet supply of leather icons remains below qualified demand. Premiums persist even as operations scale, suggesting capacity is paced against allocation to protect the icon moat.

Entry icons as buffers. Cartier Love bracelets function as a liquidity anchor with near‑retail retention and persistent top‑seller placement. During soft patches, entry icons help stabilize throughput and preserve value signaling.

Cycle sensitivity. Bain–Altagamma frames 2024–2025 as a slowdown; icon medians stay above 100% while brand averages drift lower. Protective effects are strongest where scarcity policy is explicit and consistent.

Implications for Brands and Retailers

• Make scarcity observable. Clear allocation and waitlist rules, paired with clienteling, reinforce premiums.

• Pace capacity signals. Sequence workshop news and allocations to avoid perceptions of loosened supply.

• Protect entry icons. Neverfull and Love act as throughput anchors; calibrate pricing and editions to support them.

• Control distribution. Owned channels and tight wholesale exposure reduce leakage and standardize the value narrative.

• Communicate cycle‑proof quality. Emphasize provenance and repair ecosystems during slowdowns to support retention.

• Measure and publish. SKU‑level days‑to‑sell would quantify liquidity premiums and sharpen allocation tests.

Limitations and Sensitivity

Item‑level days‑to‑sell are not consistently published; liquidity is proxied via a relative index and labeled accordingly.

Comparators use brand‑level averages where non‑icon models are not reported, which is conservative for icons that materially outperform the mean.

Limited timepoints reduce regression power; results are directional. Median‑based checks and outlier removal do not change the sign of relationships.

Appendix

Data Dictionary

brand, sku, icon, category, year, cycle_phase, value_retention_pct, resale_premium_pct, days_to_sell, liquidity_index_0to3, scarcity_level_0to2, platform, msrp_usd, notes.

Methods Pseudocode

1) Assemble Rebag/TRR dataset for target SKUs and comparators. 2) Normalize MSRP by year; adjust for condition; winsorize outliers. 3) Compute retention and premium; construct Liquidity Index. 4) Correlation and OLS with controls; cycle interactions; event windows. 5) Sensitivity checks with medians and year exclusions.

Event List

• Louis Vuitton Neverfull waitlist introduced in 2023.

• Hermès opened its 23rd leather workshop in Riom in September 2024; additional workshop in the pipeline.

References (URLs)

Rebag CLAIR Report hub: https://www.rebag.com/clair-report/

Rebag CLAIR 2024 PDF: https://staticfiles.rebag.com/rebag-fe/prod/img/clair-report-2024/Rebag-The-2024-Clair-Report.pdf

Rebag CLAIR 2023 PDF: https://staticfiles.rebag.com/rebag-fe/prod/img/clair-report-2023/Rebag-The-2023-Clair-Report.pdf

Rebag 2024 press release (brand averages): https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/rebag-releases-its-fifth-annual-clair-report-a-comprehensive-luxury-appraisal-index-for-resale-302329096.html

The RealReal 2024 Resale Report: https://www.therealreal.com/resale-report-24

WSJ on The RealReal sell‑through benchmark: https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/fashion/the-realreal-ceo-wants-consumers-to-ditch-fast-fashion-0e66d6b7

Fashionphile 2024 Ultra‑Luxury Resale Report: https://blog.fashionphile.com/2024-resale-report/

Hermès investor materials: https://finance.hermes.com/en/

Bain–Altagamma Luxury Market Monitor: https://www.bain.com/insights/luxury-goods-worldwide-market-study/

Refinery29 on LV Neverfull waitlist (2023): https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2023/06/11398961/louis-vuitton-neverfull-waitlist-sold-out

Vogue Business on Hermès resilience: https://www.voguebusiness.com/companies/six-reasons-why-hermes-is-bucking-the-luxury-slowdown

Brand Vision background: Hermès strategy https://www.brandvm.com/post/marketing-strategy-of-hermes; Louis Vuitton strategy https://www.brandvm.com/post/louis-vuitton-marketing-strategy; Cartier positioning https://www.brandvm.com/post/cartiers-marketing-sells-status

About the Author

Arman Tale is Editor‑in‑Chief at Brand Vision Insights and the founder of several businesses. He has practical experience in real estate development, event management, and branding, blending strategic insight with hands‑on know‑how. Arman’s favorite articles focus on marketing strategy case studies, business news, and tips that readers can put to work right away.