More Listings As Canada’s Fall Housing Market Cooldown Begins

• Active listings reached ~202,500 at July’s end, up 10.1% year over year and back near the long-term average; new listings were +0.1% m/m.
• CREA’s Home Price Index was flat from June to July; the average price was $672,784 (+0.6% y/y).
• Supply is piling up in big markets: GTA active listings +26.5% y/y; Metro Vancouver active listings ~17,168, near record, with prices edging lower.
• The sales-to-new-listings ratio sits ~52% (balanced), while national sales rose 3.8% m/m in July from low levels.
• BoC held the policy rate at 2.75% in July; prime is ~4.95%, and economists see room for cuts later in 2025.

Canada’s fall housing season is starting with more choice and cooler price momentum. National inventory has climbed back toward historical norms—about 202,500 homes listed at July’s end, up 10.1% from a year earlier—while CREA’s benchmark price was unchanged month-to-month, signaling softer upward pressure even as the headline average edged 0.6% higher year over year.

Regional data underscore the shift. In the GTA, active listings jumped 26.5% y/y in July, giving buyers more leverage; on the West Coast, Metro Vancouver sits near a modern high for active inventory (~17,168), and recent prints show modest month-over-month price declines—both consistent with a market easing from earlier tightness. With the national sales-to-new-listings ratio around 52%, conditions are broadly balanced even as July sales ticked 3.8% higher from June.

Rates remain the swing factor. The Bank of Canada held at 2.75% in July and the prime rate sits near 4.95%, keeping borrowing costs elevated but stable; forecasters say additional cuts later this year are plausible if growth stays soft. That setup—more listings, flat HPI, and steady-to-lower rates—points to a cooler, more negotiable fall market, particularly in Ontario and B.C., where CREA has flagged the greatest 2025 price risk.