OPEC Plans Fourth Straight Output Hike to Regain Lost Oil Market Share

OPEC’s production strategy is shifting from restraint to expansion. Starting in August, the cartel will release an extra 548,000 barrels per day, its fourth monthly bump in a row, after watching North American rivals capture post-COVID demand. Group members see a window: consumption sits comfortably above pre-pandemic levels, yet crude still hovers near the high-$60s, offering room to pump without crashing prices.

So far the market’s taken the news in stride. West Texas Intermediate remains just above $68 a barrel and Brent is holding near $70, suggesting traders believe the extra barrels can be absorbed. Deloitte’s Andrew Botterill notes that hybrids of strong demand and OPEC’s incremental approach have “kept a lid on any steep sell-off,” even as pure EV growth moderates and hybrids gain popularity.

Still, observers warn that a mis-step could tip the delicate balance. If U.S. shale and other non-OPEC suppliers maintain record runs while OPEC opens its taps, inventories could swell and prices sag later in the year. For now, though, the cartel is betting its measured increases will rebuild influence and revenue without undercutting the very recovery that made those hikes possible.